Category Archives: Uncategorized

‘Climate and Risk’ Has Moved!

I relaunched this blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist in December 2012, and have not re-posted anything on this site since January 2013

If your interested in the themes in this blog, then please check out the successor The Rational Pessimist: http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Further, if you are a follower of Climate and Risk, could you switch to The Rational Pessimist at http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Thanks!

The Club of Rome, Skeptics and Myths We Believe

I have relaunched this blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist. I am currently only posting the headlines for new posts at this, my old Climate and Risk, URL.

The rest of each post is available at http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Further, if you are a follower of Climate and Risk, could you switch to The Rational Pessimist at http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Thanks!

The Supreme Folly of Buying Oceanfront Property

I have relaunched this blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist. I am currently only posting the headlines for new posts at this, my old Climate and Risk, URL.

The rest of each post is available at http://www.therationalpessimist.com

Further, if you are a follower of Climate and Risk, could you switch to The Rational Pessimist at http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Thanks!

Global Trends 2030: Futurology Fit for a President? (Parts 1, 2 and 3)

I have relaunched this blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist. I am currently only posting the headlines for new posts at this, my old Climate and Risk, URL.

The rest of each post is available at http://www.therationalpessimist.com

Further, if you are a follower of Climate and Risk, could you switch to The Rational Pessimist at http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Thanks!

Australian Climate: The Unlucky Country

I have relaunched this blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist. I am currently only posting the headlines for new posts at this, my old Climate and Risk, URL.

The rest of each post is available at http://www.therationalpessimist.com

Further, if you are a follower of Climate and Risk, could you switch to The Rational Pessimist at http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Thanks!

2012 Declared Hottest Year on Record for U.S.

I have relaunched this blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist. I am currently only posting the headlines for new posts at this, my old Climate and Risk, URL.

The rest of each post is available at http://www.therationalpessimist.com

Further, if you are a follower of Climate and Risk, could you switch to The Rational Pessimist at http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Thanks!

US Monthly Shale Gas Watch: Jan 2013 Release

I have relaunched this blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist. I am currently only posting the headlines for new posts at this, my old Climate and Risk, URL.

The rest of each post is available at http://www.therationalpessimist.com

Further, if you are a follower of Climate and Risk, could you switch to The Rational Pessimist at http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Thanks!

Dec 2012 CO2 Data Release: Implications

I have relaunched this blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist. I am currently only posting the headlines for new posts at this, my old Climate and Risk, URL.

The rest of each post is available at http://www.therationalpessimist.com

Further, if you are a follower of Climate and Risk, could you switch to The Rational Pessimist at http://www.therationalpessimist.com.

Thanks!

Atmospheric CO2 Data Watch: Dec 2012 Release

Note: I have relaunched the blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist at www.therationalpessimist.com. For the time-being, I will post on both the old Climate and Risk URL and the new one. However, if you wish to follow the new relaunched blog going forward, please become a follower at http://www.therationalpessimist.com. Thanks!

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is the world’s leading risk indicator.

Every month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a U.S. government federal agency releases, releases data on the concentration of atmospheric CO2 as measured by the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. This is the longest continuous monthly measurement of CO2 and dates back to March 1958, when 315.70 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 was recorded.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses the year 1750 as the pre-industrialisation reference point, at which date the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was approximately 280 ppm according to ice core measurements.Key numbers relating to release:

  • December 2012 = 394.39 ppm, +2.60 ppm year-on-year
  • Twelve Month Average = 393.84 ppm, +2.19 ppm year-on-year
  • Twelve month average over pre–industrial level = +40.7%

Decadal CO2 Change jpg

Atmospheric CO2 displays annual seasonality: concentrations decline in the spring during the growing phase of terrestrial vegetation and rise in the autumn as vegetation dies and decomposes. The cycle is dominated by the northern hemisphere growing season since the northern hemisphere contains over 65% of the globe’s land mass. The cyclical pattern can be seen in the following chart (red line). The black line is the adjustment for seasonality.

The official NOAA CO2 data source can be found here, but a slightly more timely release is made of the same data by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography here.

Monthly Mean CO2 at Mauna Loa jpg

The rise in annual CO2 is due to fossil-fuel emissions and land-use change. However, there also exists some minor non-seasonal year-to-year variation related to weather, drought, fire, volcanic eruptions and ocean current changes.

All Change for Employment?

Note: I have relaunched the blog under the new name The Rational Pessimist at www.therationalpessimist.com. For the time-being, I will post on both the old Climate and Risk URL and the new one. However, if you wish to follow the new relaunched blog going forward, please become a follower at http://www.therationalpessimist.com. Thanks!

Every month, the benchmark nonfarm payroll employment numbers are reported by the U.S. government and every month Bill McBride at Calculated Risk puts out a comprehensive post analysing the figures. The post (or rather posts) invariably include the following two graphs (click on either graph for a larger image):

Percent Job Losses jpg

Employment Population Ratio copy

Both graphs suggest that there is something about the current recovery that is different; in other words,the jobs are just not coming back at the rate they used to after past recessions. Continue reading